Epidemiologia e Prevenzione. 2007 Mar-Jun;31(2-3):132-8. [Link]

Mirabelli D, Stura A, Gangemi M, Bertolotti M, Maule MM, Magnani C.

Università degli studi di Torino, Servizio epidemiologia dei tumori e Centro interdipartimentale G. Scansetti Torino. dario.mirabelli@cpo.it


Setting: age-, period-, and cohort-models allowed the prediction ofan increase in mortality from malignant mesotheliomas (MM) in Western Europe, expected to peak between 2015 and 2025 in different Countries, and around 2020 in Italy. Recently, however, a deceleration in the increase has been reported.

Objective: we updated to 31 december 2001 previous estimates ofMM incidence among residents in the Piedmont region (Italy) and assessed time-trends in incidence.

Design: the Registry of Malignant Mesotheliomas actively searches cases in hospital wards and pathology units’ records since 1990; since 1996 the database of hospital admissions and discharges is also used. Cases are registered when eligible for inclusion in the National Mesothelioma Registry.

Results: the average yearly incidence of pleural MM, computed across four consecutive three-year calendar periods, from 1990-1992 to 1999-2001, increased in both sexes, for histologically confirmed as well as for all cases. No changes were
observed in peritoneal MM incidence.

Conclusions: the rise in incidence might be due to increased diagnostic awareness for MM. An analysis by birth-cohort, however, revealed a cohort-effect, therefore it is unlikely that diagnostic bias alone could explain the observed trend. Among men residing at diagnosis in the province of Turin, but not among women nor in both sexes outside Turin province, the increase in incidence has levelled off in the most recent calendar period; for them exposures stopped on average seven years earlier than those of residents in other areas of Piedmont.