Occupational and Environmental Medicine. 2007 Sep 21; [Epub ahead of print] [Link]
Pitarque S, Cleries R, Martinez JM, Lopez-Abente G, Kogevinas M, Benavides FG.
Occupational Health Research Unit. Pompeu Fabra University, Spain.
Objectives: To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict future cases of mesothelioma.
Methods: After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to make projections of mesothelioma deaths.
Results: From 1977 to 2001, 1,928 men older than 35 died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1,321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016.
Conclusion: It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow a prediction of the year mortality will start decreasing.
Keywords: asbestos, occupational diseases, pleural neoplasms